Byelections In Oldham East & Saddleworth

Its alleged by the opinion polls that Labour is on course for a comfortable win in next week's Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election in what would be a serious blow for the Liberal Democrats, opinion polls indicated today.

Labour Party activists and guest appearance from all over the UK has been in Oldham East & Saddleworth to help our candidate to #keepoldhamlabour this because Oldham East & Saddleworth this will be a test to see if the coalition will hold this seat. I will continue to urge all our Labour activist both young and elders to come on up to Oldham East & Saddleworth to contiune to canvass for a Labour victory and give the #Libcon and partner #conservatives a bloody noise in this byelections cheack your Regional Office for transport details.

Nick Clegg's party trails by 17 points in two separate surveys of voters in the key marginal.

The huge deficit contrasts starkly with the general election when its candidate lost by just 103 votes and then won a legal bid to have Labour victor Phil Woolas stripped of the seat for lying about him.

Not enough Tory backers have been willing to switch to the junior power-sharing partner to make up for the haemorrhaging of support away from Lib Dem Elwyn Watkins to Labour's Debbie Abrahams.

A poll of 1,500 voters in the constituency conducted for the ex-Tory deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft put Labour on 46 per cent, the Lib Dems on 29 per cent and the Conservatives on 15 per cent.

Its findings were mirrored by an ICM poll which gave Labour a 44 per cent to 27 per cent lead over the Lib Dems - with the Tories' Kashif Ali doing slightly better at 18 per cent.

Unemployment Hits National Insurance Reserves

I have to say since the coalition took over from Labour the coalitions figures has increased under their management. The question is is this management or mismanagement that is the question that all of us need to ask ourselves. It looks like this is the time when the coalition needs to reflex on whether to take on board what Labour as been saying all along that if you raise VAT, Petrol, and National Insurance, Diesel that the rate of growth will hit the poorest and middle income the hardest in a time of recession.

Rising unemployment has cut the amount of money the government holds in reserve to pay out-of-work benefits, new figures reveal.

The National Insurance Fund lost £4.5bn in the year to March 2010 - the first time since 1993 it has gone down.

But it still stood at £48.5bn - well within what is considered prudent by government accountants.

All UK workers pay into the fund - sickness benefits and jobseekers allowance are paid from it if needed.

According to the fund's accounts for 2009/10, £4.9bn of the decrease was down to rising unemployment claims and a £663m reduction in National Insurance contributions.

Interest earned on the fund "also decreased significantly due to the historically low interest rates", the accounts say.

In 1992, the government actuary set a rate of 16.7% of annual expenditure on benefits as a prudent level for the fund to hold.

It currently stands at 64% of the annual welfare bill and is expected to remain at that level next year.

This suggests the government will have enough in reserve to carry on paying benefits if unemployment continues to rise as some economists have predicted.

According to figures released by the Office for Budget Responsibility at the end of last year, rising unemployment will cost the government £1.5bn more than expected in welfare benefits, over the next four years.

The OBR also calculates the government will have to pay out £700m more in unemployment benefit than previously forecast.

Official data showed 2.5 million people were unemployed last month - compared with 1.63 million in the same month in 2009.

But a survey released this week suggests the jobs market is "on the road to recovery", with a strong rise in demand for staff.

The survey of recruitment consultants and employers in December found permanent staff vacancies rising at their fastest level in four months.

But one of the reports sponsors, KPMG, warns the future of the recovery is uncertain, as the government's austerity measures take effect.